Sunday, January 11, 2009

The end of the first half

With this afternoon's game in Amarillo officially ending the first half of the season (not numerically, but symbolically), the Scorpions have their work cut out if they want to paint themselves anywhere in the playoff picture. In a first half marred by bad starts, suspect decision-making and, above all, inconsistency, the good thing is that Randy Murphy has plenty of things his team can improve on. The onus is on him to make his guys commit to his improvements and play like the team everyone has seen flashes of this season. Here's a look at the numbers game thus far, along with some third-party observations and possible fixes. I encourage any readers to speak your minds here, talk about what you think will help as well.

The Numbers:
  • 147- goals allowed by the Scorpions, good enough for last place in the league. This is clearly the stat the Scorpions need to improve upon the most. Goaltending has been at fault on a few occassions, but Andrew Martin and Jason Wolfe have been pretty reliable when they've had a team defense in front of them. Getting Adam Blanchette and Tyler Fuller off the IR will help the Scorps' cause, especially given that they've consistently been the only plus-rated players on the Scorpions'. If Randy Murphy makes a move before the trade deadline, I wouldn't be surprised to see him add an experienced d-man to help flesh out his blueline corps
  • 5-10-2- the Scorpions' record at home. In the past two years, the Scorpions have been one of the Southern Conference's best teams at home, compiling an overall record of 42-16-6 at the Santa Ana Star Center. The team's 10 regulation home losses at the all-star break is more than they had in the whole of each of the past two seasons. It's gotta be tough to play in front of such small crowds, but the Scorpions need to get past that and start utilizing the comfort of playing at home as well as the altitude. The Scorpions start the month of February with a 6-game homestand that includes double-headers against Rapid City and Laredo, with a midweek contest against Odessa sandwiched in between. It's going to be crucial for the Scorps to start showing up at home, especially given the limited number of contests they have against the teams they're chasing for a playoff spot (see entry below)
  • 15.3% / 75.4 % - the Scorpions' powerplay and penalty kill percentages, good enough for 14th and 15th in the league, respectively. It's been a sticking point since the Ray Edwards era that the Scorpions, on a talent level, should be able to hang with any team in this league 5-on-5. The Scorpions have had their troubles at even-strength this season (-55 rating as a team) but the special teams play has been completely unreliable. The powerplay has shown flashes of brilliance (exhibit A) and has looked beyond bad (exhibit B). One of the biggest problems, in my mind, has been the absence of a pointman to complement Aaron MacInnis. Obviously Vladi Hartinger left a huge void, and the once-dynamic powerplay has taken a huge hit because of it. Mitch Stephens has great vision, but he's not comfortable enough at the blueline and having a forward at the point is always a liability if you turn the puck over. The penalty kill, for its part, has been the single biggest thorn in the Scorpions' side this season. The Scorpions have only lost three games (0-2-1) when they have gone perfect on the penalty kill, but those occassions have been few and far between. It really hurts when your team has allowed the second most powerplay goals in the league (56) while facing the third fewest shorthanded opportunites (228).
  • 7- the number of games the Scorpions have remaining against main playoff competitors (2 games vs. Corpus Christi, 1 game vs. Rio Grande Valley, 4 games vs. Arizona). Fittingly enough, those 4 games against the Sundogs make up 4 of the final 6 games of the season, meaning the playoff picture could very well hinge on that half-dozen games if the Scorpions can make a push. Historically, the Scorpions have done pretty well in four-point games during the second half, but they're going to need some favors from other teams around the league this year.

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